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Probability and gambling-cost tools

These educational calculators make implied probability, built-in odds margin, total turnover and losses visible. They run only in your browser and predict no outcome.

Reconcile spending across several accounts

A bank statement shows payments, but may omit money left with operators. Use the same period and currency for all four amounts on each account. Transfers between your accounts must be recorded as a withdrawal from one and a deposit into the other.

Data stays in this page: no transmission, cookies or storage. Reloading clears it. Avoid account numbers and personal details.

Reconcile spending across several accounts
Account (optional label)Opening balance (€)Deposits (€)Withdrawals received (€)Closing balance (€)Remove

Example: €100 deposited does not mean €100 lost

From the first to the last day of a month, account A opens at €40, receives €100 in deposits, pays €30 in withdrawals and closes at €25. Its net loss is 40 + 100 − 30 − 25 = €85. Account B opens at €20, receives no deposits, pays €50 and closes at zero: its result is −€30, a €30 net gain. Combined net loss is €55, with €100 deposited and €80 withdrawn. Ignoring balances would produce €20, understating the loss by €35.

Formula : Opening balance (€) + Deposits (€) − Withdrawals received (€) − Closing balance (€).

Use completed withdrawals and real-money balances recorded at the same time. Exclude non-withdrawable bonuses. Open bets, pending withdrawals, fees and conversions need separate reconciliation: this calculation alone does not capture every cost. Do not mix euros with other currencies. A favourable result in one period does not predict the next.

Understand cash flows and calculation limits · Find ways to take a break

AI illustration: notebook, calculator and verification documents
AI illustration: notebook, calculator and verification documents · AI-generated image · WORLD GAMBLING GUIDE
01

Implied probability from odds

Decimal odds of 2.00 correspond to 50% before margin.

Implied probability—
02

Margin in an odds market

Enter every decimal price from one market, separated by spaces or semicolons.

Probability sum and margin—
03

Total turnover and theoretical loss

Repetition increases exposure: stake × rounds, then turnover × edge.

Turnover and theoretical loss—
04

Observed net loss

For the same period, add opening balance and deposits, then subtract completed withdrawals and closing balance.

Net loss—
05

Accumulator odds and payout

At least two decimal odds separated by spaces or semicolons. Shows total odds, gross return and possible profit; it does not predict a win.

Odds · Gross return · Profit if successful—
06

Net result of full cash out

Confirmed transaction, no fees and no remaining bet: amount received minus original stake.

Net result (negative = loss)—
07

Bonus wagering exposure

Contractual base: bonus only or deposit + bonus. With a 20% contribution, five euros staked count as one euro. This does not measure withdrawable value or completion probability and recommends no offer.

Required credited wagers · Stakes required—
08

At least one event across repeated draws

Theoretical example: same probability on each independent draw. A streak does not change the next draw. Models neither related bets nor net profit.

Probability of at least one event—
09

Percentage with a cap

Amount = minimum(base × rate, cap). Assumes the charge or credit applies; it does not measure a bonus’s withdrawable value.

Calculated amount—
10

Conversion after fixed fees

Rate = destination units per source unit. Fees are subtracted after conversion in the destination currency. No current rate is supplied.

Gross units · Net units received—
11

Complete trip budget

Enter costs for the whole group in one currency: euros here. Nightly cost = all rooms for one night; daily cost = meals and local travel for the entire group per day. Include accommodation taxes and use actual days, which may differ from nights. Winnings and stakes do not fund the trip. No destination prices are supplied.

Planned expenses · Total including reserve—

Result

What these results do not say

Probability is not a prediction

A 25% chance may or may not occur next. It describes theoretical frequency, not a promise.

Theoretical loss is not a ceiling

A short session can lose far more than the calculated average. Variance often dominates the short term.

Turnover can exceed deposits

Replaying a win increases total exposure without another payment. Tracking real cash flows remains essential.

Margin does not include every cost

Commission, exchange fees, bonus conditions, tax or pricing errors may change the real cost.

Formulas used

  1. Implied probability = 100 ÷ decimal odds.
  2. Gross margin = sum of implied probabilities − 100.
  3. Turnover = stake per round × number of rounds.
  4. Theoretical loss = turnover × theoretical edge.
  5. Net loss = opening balance + deposits − withdrawals − closing available balance.
  6. Accumulator odds = product of accepted odds; possible gross return = stake × total odds.
  7. Net full cash out = confirmed credited amount − original stake (no fees).
  8. Trip = nights × nightly accommodation + days × daily costs + transport + visits + reserve. All amounts cover the same group and are converted to euros before adding.
  9. Capped amount = min(base × rate / 100, cap).
  10. Net destination units = source amount × rate − destination-currency fee.
  11. Credited wagers = base × multiplier; required stakes = credited wagers ÷ (contribution / 100). Zero contribution cannot complete the requirement with that game.
  12. At least one event in n independent draws = 1 − (1 − p)^n, where p is the per-draw probability between 0 and 1.

Check assumptions before reading a result

Margin calculations need all mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes from the same market. Odds from different markets or times are not a comparable measurement. Implied probability is not an independent forecast.

Theoretical loss requires a relevant rate for the variant and measured turnover. It provides neither a confidence interval nor a maximum loss. Deposit and withdrawal totals describe cash flows, not every stake.